Sequence · 2021-10-02

M 7.3 · Observed seismic cluster · Vanuatu region

Explore clusters of M4.5+ events observed around significant earthquakes. These clusters are descriptive and are not presented as earthquake predictions.

M4.5+ events in cluster5
M6+2
Analysis radius388 km
Observation window14 days
Largest secondary eventM 6.9
Quake Pulse · Major sequence

What the sequence shows

After the M 7.3 reference event, Quake Pulse counts 1 M4+ event(s) in the first 24 hours and 2 in the first 7 days. Fourteen-day M4.5+ activity is about 0.3× the average equivalent derived from the previous year. The largest secondary event is M 0.4 below the reference event.

79/100Sequence score
Events in the previous 24 h0
In the first hour1
In the first 24 hours1
In the first 7 days2
Within 14 days4
Peak one-hour count1

Local historical context

Descriptive comparison with M4.5+ events observed in the same radius during the 365 days before the sequence.

M4.5+ events / 365 d345Average 14-day equivalent13.2Activity / baseline ratio0.3×

A ratio above 1 means denser M4.5+ activity than the average equivalent derived from the previous 365 days. It is not a risk measure or a forecast.

Reference event

Largest secondary eventM 6.9Magnitude gapM 0.4Observed duration10.0 d

Earlier events are shown as context only. They are not labelled precursors and should not be interpreted as predictive signals.

Evolving sequence map

Shows M4+ cluster events according to elapsed time after the reference event.

Vanuatu region · 388 kmInteractive 3D view of earthquakes within 388 km of Vanuatu region.Vanuatu regionM 4.7 · Vanuatu region · 53.7 km
Vanuatu region388 km1 Recent earthquakes

Detailed timeline

Dots represent M4+ events retained by the sequence detector. Dot size depends on magnitude.

Sequences are descriptive groupings based on spatial and temporal proximity. Quake Pulse does not establish a causal link between every event here and does not provide earthquake forecasts.

Quake Pulse

Main-event impact

15 Felt reports · PAGER GREEN · Tsunami indicator · Very deep

67/100
Impact and context →

M4.5+ events in cluster

MagnitudeLocationDepthTime
M 7.3Vanuatu region527.0 km2021-10-02 06:29:17 UTCView event →
M 4.7Vanuatu region526.5 km2021-10-02 06:45:24 UTCView event →
M 4.5southeast of the Loyalty Islands10.0 km2021-10-06 20:41:17 UTCView event →
M 6.9Vanuatu region535.0 km2021-10-09 10:58:31 UTCView event →
M 5.4Vanuatu region519.5 km2021-10-12 06:04:10 UTCView event →

Interpretation

Explore clusters of M4.5+ events observed around significant earthquakes. These clusters are descriptive and are not presented as earthquake predictions. Historical small-earthquake detection varies through time. Long-term comparisons are most robust at higher magnitude thresholds.

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