Sequence · 2023-12-28

M 6.5 · Observed seismic cluster · 115 km SE of Kuril’sk, Russia

Explore clusters of M4.5+ events observed around significant earthquakes. These clusters are descriptive and are not presented as earthquake predictions.

M4.5+ events in cluster7
M6+1
Analysis radius260 km
Observation window14 days
Largest secondary eventM 5.0
Quake Pulse · Strong sequence

What the sequence shows

After the M 6.5 reference event, Quake Pulse counts 5 M4+ event(s) in the first 24 hours and 6 in the first 7 days. Fourteen-day M4.5+ activity is about 3.6× the average equivalent derived from the previous year. The largest secondary event is M 1.5 below the reference event.

60/100Sequence score
Events in the previous 24 h0
In the first hour2
In the first 24 hours5
In the first 7 days6
Within 14 days6
Peak one-hour count2

Local historical context

Descriptive comparison with M4.5+ events observed in the same radius during the 365 days before the sequence.

M4.5+ events / 365 d44Average 14-day equivalent1.7Activity / baseline ratio3.6×

A ratio above 1 means denser M4.5+ activity than the average equivalent derived from the previous 365 days. It is not a risk measure or a forecast.

Reference event

Largest secondary eventM 5.0Magnitude gapM 1.5Observed duration3.8 d

Earlier events are shown as context only. They are not labelled precursors and should not be interpreted as predictive signals.

Evolving sequence map

Shows M4+ cluster events according to elapsed time after the reference event.

115 km SE of Kuril’sk, Russia · 260 kmInteractive 3D view of earthquakes within 260 km of 115 km SE of Kuril’sk, Russia.115 km SE of Kuril’sk, RussiaM 5.0 · 126 km SE of Kuril’sk, Russia · 15.0 kmM 4.5 · 128 km SE of Kuril’sk, Russia · 17.4 kmM 4.6 · 112 km SE of Kuril’sk, Russia · 16.2 kmM 4.9 · 131 km SE of Kuril’sk, Russia · 16.4 kmM 4.6 · 125 km SE of Kuril’sk, Russia · 13.2 km
115 km SE of Kuril’sk, Russia260 km5 Recent earthquakes

Detailed timeline

Dots represent M4+ events retained by the sequence detector. Dot size depends on magnitude.

Sequences are descriptive groupings based on spatial and temporal proximity. Quake Pulse does not establish a causal link between every event here and does not provide earthquake forecasts.

Quake Pulse

Main-event impact

3 Felt reports · PAGER GREEN · Shallow

46/100
Impact and context →

M4.5+ events in cluster

MagnitudeLocationDepthTime
M 6.5115 km SE of Kuril’sk, Russia31.0 km2023-12-28 09:15:16 UTCView event →
M 5.0126 km SE of Kuril’sk, Russia42.2 km2023-12-28 09:37:26 UTCView event →
M 4.5128 km SE of Kuril’sk, Russia46.9 km2023-12-28 10:07:44 UTCView event →
M 4.6112 km SE of Kuril’sk, Russia35.0 km2023-12-28 11:44:09 UTCView event →
M 4.9131 km SE of Kuril’sk, Russia35.0 km2023-12-28 12:40:43 UTCView event →
M 4.6125 km SE of Kuril’sk, Russia52.9 km2023-12-28 15:04:23 UTCView event →
M 4.5139 km SE of Kuril’sk, Russia35.0 km2024-01-01 04:49:01 UTCView event →

Interpretation

Explore clusters of M4.5+ events observed around significant earthquakes. These clusters are descriptive and are not presented as earthquake predictions. Historical small-earthquake detection varies through time. Long-term comparisons are most robust at higher magnitude thresholds.

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